They say things are done for the majority
Don’t believe half of what you see and none of what you hear
It’s like what my painter friend Donald said to me
“Stick a fork in their ass and turn them over, they’re done”
Nicolas Maduro is very brittle.
Push a bit harder and Maduro will snap like a potato chip.
Venezuela’s economy has collapsed, and state-owned oil firm Pdvsa – generator of 96% of the country’s annual dollar revenues – is broken operationally and financially beyond repair in its present form.
Maduro cannot fix Venezuela. He cannot govern. He doesn’t have the policy instruments or political/financial resources to change Venezuela’s course. He lacks the popular and political support.
Chavez was the pueblo’s hero. Hugo had charisma. Maduro is simply a mean bullyboy chump. Ten months after very narrowly winning the presidency, Maduro still can’t move into the presidential residence because Chavez’s daughters refuse to leave.
Maduro believed that violent repression would be effective against the people, but it backfired immediately.
“You have the bullets, but we have the balls,” a poster at a recent protest stated.
National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, also very brittle, warned menacingly last night that today’s peaceful demonstration would not be allowed to enter Libertador district aka Chavez country.
But Interior & Justice Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres today pulled back (slightly) the National Guard and police forces from the peaceful demonstration in Chacaito where Leopoldo Lopez spoke the truth.
Cabello was cashiered as a lieutenant for participating in Chavez’s failed 2002 coup attempt. Rodriguez Torres also was involved in that failed coup, but today he’s an active duty major general.
In Venezuela’s hierarchical military establishment, who outranks whom?
Maduro said today at a pro-government Pdvsa demonstration organized by Energy Minister that Leopoldo Lopez will be prosecuted for “sedition.”
Maduro’s lengthy and violent rant at the pro-government march by several thousand Pdvsa workers came after Voluntad Popular’s national coordinator, Leopoldo Lopez, surrendered to National Guard troops at a peaceful demonstration in Chacaito.
Maduro’s menacing remarks were aimed at what he called the “fascist opposition.” He also took aim at Colombia and the US government.
Maduro, Cabello, Jaua and Arreaza – all members of the “grupito” in power illegitimately – have charged that the US government, Colombian leader Alvaro Uribe Velez, the CIA and other imperialist boogiemen are conspiring with Leopoldo Lopez to launch a coup in Venezuela.
In fact, Maduro’s rapidly worsening political problems are mostly inside his illegitimate regime.
Maduro and the “grupito” currently in power are not legitimate representatives of what is broadly defined as “chavismo” or the Bolivarian revolution.
With the exception of Cabello, a lieutenant who was dishonorably discharged for treason, the rest of this grupito are civilians.
While Hugo Chavez was still alive this “grupito” was legitimate in that they were appointed by Chavez and served the president.
But when Chavez died his charisma, popularity with the poor and his legitimate status as the leader of the Bolivarian revolution also died.
Millions of Venezuelans standing in line for hours to buy fewer food supplies at much-higher prices while government-armed “malandros” prey on innocent civilians, aren’t buying Maduro and crew’s “be loyal to Chavez” propaganda anymore.
Maduro’s illegitimate regime is a den of rattlers and mapanares looking for an opportunity to strike a killing blow, and their primary prey is Maduro.
Diosdado Cabello wants the presidency. He’s doing what he can to line up support within the army for his ambitions among his former academy classmates, who mostly are nearing the end of their active careers.
Cabello is now working very closely with Hugo “El Pollo” Carvajal, the former military intelligence (DIM) chief designated a FARC narco-collaborator since 2008.
Another “ficha” in Cabello’s camp is Leocenis Garcia, who profited by blackmailing deserving scoundrels of the Bolivarian era and calling it “investigative journalism.”
Garcia, who published 6to Poder, went through a rough patch politically not long ago that included a stint behind bars.
But lately he has rebounded nicely: 6to Poder is live again, and the investigative journalist apparently has expanded his small media empire to include online HD glossy porn.
Cabello, who coordinated the old Bolivarian Circles in 2011-02 during his brief sting as vice president, also has close ties to the armed “collectives” the regime has often used to frighten, maim and kill its opponents.
But Cabello likely has no real control over the “collectives.” It’s doubtful if anyone can control these groups, many of which operate out of 23 de Enero.
Rodriguez Torres also is eyeing the presidency, and he outranks Cabello.
Rodriguez Torres also appears to be positioning his people carefully in the Maduro regime, maintaining his ties with the army, and reportedly even reaching out quietly to some personalities in the opposition.
It’s not clear who, or what, might replace Maduro and the “grupito.” Certainly there’s no successor to Maduro inside the Psuv.
But inside the military the pressures to replace Maduro are rising.
The alarms of conspiracies raised recenty by Maduro and Cabello suggest there’s some truth to reports of movements between military and civilian figures, and across opposing party lines, to dump Maduro quickly and sweep out the rest of the thugs responsible for ruining the country.
Cabello rightly is alarmed because there’s no room for him in this movement to change the regime. Cabello is a big part of the problem, hence his explicit endorsement of violent repression to silence the regime’s foes.
Maduro does not enjoy the unflagging support of the armed forces regardless of what Venezuela’s defense minister Carmen Melendez said today. Melendez is an admiral, not army; she’s also a politically appointed hack without any line command support whatsoever even among her peers, regardless of outward appearances.
The system got rid of Carlos Andres Perez constitutionally in 1993. This precedent suggests the same could happen to Maduro, particularly if his alleged Colombian nationality becomes an issue.