Venezuela: Run Away

Venezuela: Run Away is the headline of veteran Venezuela analyst Walter Molano’s latest report on Venezuela, posted at Nouriel Roubini’s site. Very emotional, for a financial analyst; some excerpts, condensed by this blogger:

“…the situation in Venezuela is…quickly spiraling out of control…President Chavez is starting to show signs of desperation… fear of nationalization and confiscation is forcing more Venezuelans immigrate and send their assets abroad…this is pushing the country towards the brink of collapse….there is only one recommendation—liquidate all Venezuelan positions before it is too late… the notion that PDVSA bond holders can gain access to the company’s international assets, such as the CITGO refineries, is pure fiction… the risks in Venezuela are huge, but they are getting worse…. social tensions are on the rise. Although (Chavez) continues to enjoy the support of 50% of the population, he is creating an environment of class warfare—which could end up destroying the country… it’s time to sell everything in Venezuela and get out.”

About Caracas Gringo

Representing less than 0.00000000001515152% of the world population as of 31 December 2011.
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8 Responses to Venezuela: Run Away

  1. GT says:

    Okay, time to leave.
    Sell my apartment and receive bolivares.
    No bank abroad will exept bolivares, so what are to do?
    How do persons, who like to leave the country, get their money in a legal way out of Venezuela??

    Like

    • Daniel says:

      Roy,

      what are the chances of reconstruction? do you have to wait until Thugo leaves? and then begin investments in venezuela for the reconstruction?

      or is there a way to do well during reconstruction while having hugo as president? i just dont see that happening.. what are your thoughts?

      is Hugo’s popularity finally starting to fall yet? I still cannot believe 50% of the population support him.

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      • Roy says:

        Daniel,

        Hugo has to go before I will invest another dime in Venezuela. Regarding his support, it is somewhere between 10-20% of the population. He can count on another 20% to vote for him out of fear of retribution. The other 20% he can make up with manipulation and cheating.

        After that, for someone willing to invest for the long term and has the stomach for a certain amount of chaos, there should be all sorts of opportunities.

        But, nothing changes until Chavez is no longer receiving his mail at Miraflores.

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  2. Roy says:

    GT,

    Find a buyer who will buy in dollars deposited to your account outside.

    You will probably have to sell cheap. I would say that you will only get 50-60% of what you could have gotten six months ago. If you are completely risk averse, you should cut your losses, however you can, and get out.

    Me, I am going to stick it out. In for a penny, in for a pound. If I leave at the point of a gun, with the clothes on my back, so be it. On the other hand, if the ball bounces the right way, I should be able to do well during the re-construction.

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  3. m_astera says:

    I’m with you, Roy. A friend of mine told me that the Chinese symbol for chaos also means opportunity. Right now I have clients all over the world except where I live, Venezuela, but I’m well prepared to move forward here when the opportunity arises. Venezuela is going to need to learn how to grow quality food when the dollars run out.

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  4. Carlota says:

    It is not easy to leave your country, your family, your friends, your properties, everything, but maybe it is the only option we have now.

    I think the reconstruction of Venezuela will take a lot of time. In my opinion the problem of this country is its people. Ignorant people with a very low level of education. Chavez has been destroying Venezuela for eleven years, and he still having people who support him. For me it is inconceivable.

    I´d like to think different but in my opinion there is not many hopes for this country. A country which most of persons are looking for their personal benefits, and do not care about others or about the country. The result of it is what we have now.

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  5. Celf says:

    A little bit of Venezuelan history and a minimum capacity for analysys show that Hugo is not our first Hugo… I mean he’s just the most recent in the almost dynastic line of all-powerful caudillos that have and will always rule this country:
    Paez, Chaos, Monagas, Chaos, Guzman, Chaos, Castro, Gómez, Perez Jimenez, Betancourt… The rest of the guys could only temporarily manage chaos until the next Ceasar arrived, Betancourt was an exception, he gave up power without delay acording to the rules and never came back; that’s why we all thought the system had changed, but it didn’t.
    That’s the natural dynamics of power and development in this country. Those are the rules. If you can understand that and navigate through the changing moods of the tyrant-in-office, there are plenty of chances to grow. That’s how all the big fortunes in this country were ceeated. This is how the Mantuanos managed to keep their economical success and power despite the precarious economies and too-many-times-brutal inestability of the 19th century and the swinging e trends of the 20th century.
    If you are attached to some kind of values or ideals, you are screwed: this is not and will never be a place for you.
    BOTTOM LINE: LEARN FROM HISTORY… No nation has ever changed profpundly without profound trauma, and we haven’t had any in 150 years. So people see no reason to change. Deal with that or leave.

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  6. Carl Avtek says:

    The truth is that this country has never had, or been through what the europeans had after the war. Venezuelan people are very forgetful, specially if they are given beer or rum or whisky. Their worst enemy will become their best friend over a bottle of some alcoholic beverage. All year round the speak about how bad the government is, but come elections, when the government starts giving out free washing machines, stoves and refrigerators, they inmediately forget all the bad things, and suddenly the government is good. THEY HAVE WHAT THEY DESERVE. One day we shall all awake and ask ourselves “What on earth happened here?” Where were we?

    Like

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