“We know what we are doing,” President Hugo Chavez declared during a nationally televised broadcast on 2 March. “There is a government here…we learn from our problems.”
Chavez made these remarks during another longwinded gobbledygook explanation of why Venezuela’s power crisis is not his fault.
It’s impossible to determine if Chavez truly believes the bullshit spewing from his mouth, or if he has a load of loose screws bouncing and rattling inside his sphincterous skull.
Either way, Chavez reminds Caracas Gringo of Daffy Duck, one of the “screwball” characters featured since the 1930’s in the famous Loonie Tunes and Merrie Melodies animated cartoons.
Of course, Daffy is fictional entertainment one can laugh at, while Chavez is the political equivalent of the Black Death, someone who ruins and destroys everything he touches.
Chavez apparently still believes he is in control of Venezuela. And in some respects, Chavez is right. His corrupt regime controls the National assembly, Supreme Court, the Attorney General, the judiciary and the National Electoral Council which oversees/regulates all elections.
Chavez also thinks he controls the armed forces, and that Venezuela’s military establishment is 100% supportive of his obsessive drive to crown himself president-for-life of a Cuban-style communist regime in which the nation is his personal “hacienda” and the people of Venezuela are cattle to be used, abused and disposed of as he wills.
Chavez employs threats, intimidation, harassment, political persecution and a kangaroo judiciary to ensure his cattle are submissive and obedient. He has armed civilian irregular groups with thousands of FAL and AK-103/104 assault rifles, and regularly threatens to unleash massive bloodshed, death and civil war on Venezuela – particularly if he were to lose free and fair democratic elections.
To ensure his perpetual hold on all political and economic power, Chavez also has surrendered Venezuela’s sovereignty and its wealth to the criminal thugs of the Castro dictatorship in Cuba. Today between 50,000 and 60,000 Cubans reportedly are in Venezuela on various “missions” aimed at accelerating the coutnry’s transition towards what many analysts describe as “Cubazuela.”
Chavez also has transformed Venezuela into a geopolitical petri dish in which he is fusing international narco-terrorist organizations, transnational crime groups and the world’s most undemocratic, authoritarian and rogue regimes into a pestilent 21st century “mondongo.”
But a reckoning may be nigh for Chavez and his Bolivarian regime. Venezuela has accumulated too many structural, institutional, economic and societal fractures during his criminal reign, and these fractures appear to be coming together in 2010 with potentially devastating consequences for peace and stability.
It’s impossible to predict how and when President Chavez will reach the end of his journey. But the process has started. And several things could reasonably happen as the revolution breaks up:
One, the end of Chavez will not result from a democratic process, because Chavez has declared repeatedly that he will never recognize the results of any democratic elections in which he is declared the loser. Chavez has already called the tune, pledging death and mayhem on anyone who opposes his will.
Two, a majority of the “pueblo” will support Chavez’s removal from power. It’s impossible to sustain Bolivarian bread and circus without electricity, water, food, decent health care, rampant violent crime, and growing political persecution of all real and imagined “enemies” of the regime.
Three, Chavez, a proven cowardly bully at his core, will abandon his followers and flee at the first sign that his physical survival could be threatened, but…
Four, if Chavez breaks his own cowardly patterns and chooses to stay, it’s doubtful that he will survive the implosion of his revolution. There won’t be a trial in Venezuela or exile in Cuba for Chavez. He will face the same end as other tyrants or communists like Hitler, Mussolini, Ceausescu and Allende.
Five, some hardcore “chavistas” will make a last stand, but the majority – including many senior regime figures – will fade into the darkness as they did once before in April 2002. And many “chavistas” who try to slaughter their countrymen will face swift, summary street justice imposed by the “pueblo.”
Six, the armed forces will break up into pieces. Some will stay with Chavez, others will take flight or attempt to bottom-feed opportunistically on the remains of the Bolivarian regime. But a surprisingly large group will try their best to salvage Venezuela’s democratic institutions.
Seven, the establishment “oppo” – who collectively amount to a herd of wet cats stuffed into a sack – will take cover at the first hint of fireworks, but then will emerge from their holes in an effort to seize as much of the pie as they can possibly gorge upon while the turmoil and confusion persist.
Eight, the “international community” led by the United States will deplore, threaten, bluster and bemoan the “breakdown” of democracy in Venezuela. But if the Venezuelan nation has any common sense and “cojones” – and Caracas Gringo believes the “pueblo” has both in great quantities – the Venezuelan people will tell the rest of the world “que se vayan p’al carajo.”
Caracas Gringo dearly hopes this forecast is completely mistaken, but the crisis in Venezuela has reached a stage where the inevitable end most likely will be fiery, explosive and bloody.