The Cubans are Spooked

Some Cubans on official missions in Venezuela are spooked – especially the Cubans deployed here on military, intelligence and other security-related activities. Moreover, the Cubans in Venezuela have good reasons to be worried because they are potentially very deep inside the hurt locker.

Much speculation has surrounded the recent visit to Venezuela of Havana’s hatchet man, Ramiro Valdes. But hardly anyone noticed that Ricardo Alarcon, president of the Cuban National Assembly since 1993 and one of the toughest hard men of the Cuban regime, visited Caracas in December 2009 to assess the situation in Venezuela.

Caracas Gringo is told that Alarcon was very alarmed by what he found. Reportedly, when Alarcon returned to Havana he told the Castro brothers and their top military/security cadres that President Chavez has lost control of the situation and Venezuela has become ungovernable.

Chavez is determined to remain in power forever at any cost.

Havana is determined to deepen/expand its power in Venezuela at any cost – including the elimination of Chavez.

Without the economic/energy lifeline from Caracas, the weakened Cuban regime might finally implode. The Castro brothers know that time will soon transform them into moldering compost. But there are many senior Cuban regime figures who think they have a chance of keeping their hold on power in a post-Castro scenario. But without the Bolivarian economic lifeline from Caracas, their chances of survival in power in Havana are very slight.

The question that some people in Havana and Caracas are pondering now is whether Chavez is more useful as a dead martyr, or as a failed revolutionary leader sidelined by a “new” generation of Bolivarian capos. Will Chavez be the sacrificial scapegoat of Cubazuela, or will he be “retired” for health-related reasons?

The problem is that Chavez is the Bolivarian revolution’s brand. What is left if the “brand” is erased? Imagine Apple or Toyota without the brand name makes them instantly recognizable and enhances the perceived value of their respective products anywhere in the world.

Chavez always warns that there is no chavismo, and no Bolivarian revolution, without Chavez. However, after 11-plus years in power the Chavez brand is badly damaged – perhaps beyond any possibility of rebranding. Can the Bolivarian revolution survive without Chavez in the presidency?

Many people close to Chavez physically are weighing that question right now, including among others Ali Rodriguez Araque and Jose Vicente Rangel, both of whom are longtime Havana henchmen in Venezuela.

Currently there are between 60,000 and 70,000 Cubans in Venezuela on various “missions,” according to recent reports from courageous Venezuelan reporters like Marianela Salazar and Rafael Poleo.

It’s impossible to determine with any accuracy how many of these Cubans are engaged in military, intelligence and other security-related functions including deep penetration of vital institutions of political and civil governance.

But how many Cubans are truly hardcore, committed Communists willing to sacrifice their lives to keep Chavez, the Castros and their small circle of elite thugs in power? How many are true radical Marxist believers?

Not as many as one might think, Venezuelan and Cuban sources tell Caracas Gringo.

For example, it’s a fact that Cuban military personnel have been embedded in Venezuelan military units in Fort Tiuna in Caracas. And it’s a fact that Cuban intelligence officials are actively supporting General Hugo Carvajal’s drug smuggling crime crews within the newly created Bolivarian National Intelligence Service.

But, at best, these reputedly hardcore Cuban military/intelligence officials number only a few hundred persons. And their locations inside Venezuela have already been pinpointed very precisely by professional Venezuelan warriors who will never let the Cubans steal Venezuela.

However, let’s be clear on this point: Venezuelans do not have anything against the Cuban people. Indeed, the majority of the Cubans in-country on nonmilitary missions – doctors, sports trainers, etc. – is not rejected by the Venezuelan people. Even Caracas Gringo and members of his extended Venezuelan family have been aided several times in recent years by Cuban physicians; after all, the Barrio Adentro medical missions are for everyone in Venezuela who needs immediate assistance.

But Chavez is so desperate to stay in power that he’s surrendering Venezuela’s sovereignty wholesale to the Cuban regime. Cubazuela is not just a buzzword, but a description of a process which President Chavez and others in his regime are advancing as rapidly as they can. To remain in power, Chavez and his gang are actively engaged in acts of high treason against the Constitution and Republic of Venezuela.

But Caracas Gringo believes the Cubans are a paper tiger. Their numbers may be substantial, but over 9 out of every 10 Cubans in Venezuela today will never point weapons at Venezuelan nationals. They aren’t going to immolate themselves to perpetuate the Cubazuelan revolution.

There aren’t any significant numbers of Cuban military or security/intelligence personnel at any Venezuelan military garrisons outside Caracas. Cubans do visit these garrisons but they rarely spend even one night inside these bases. Why not?

“Because the Cubans do not feel safe outside Caracas,” a Venezuelan military source tells Caracas Gringo. “The Cubans know that they are not welcome, and never will be welcome, inside Venezuelan military garrisons. Venezuela’s roads and highways are in serious disrepair, and violent crime is out of control. Accidents can and do happen all the time.”

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About Caracas Gringo

Representing less than 0.00000000001515152% of the world population as of 31 December 2011.
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8 Responses to The Cubans are Spooked

  1. JIM GUIRARD says:

    To read the TrueSpeak essay “Venezuela Si … CUBAzuela NO”
    please call up this URL …

    http://truespeak.org/contents/view/venezuelasicubazuelano

    In due course, the following list of truthfully negative new labels and slogans by which the people of Central and South America can readily condemn their (and the late, great Latino nationalist Simon Bolivar’s) clearly internationalist and largely “Bolchevista” enemies should include

    Venezuela Si ! CUBAzuela NO !!
    Nicaragua Si ! CUBAragua NO !!
    No a la Revolucion “Chavista-Bolchevista”
    En Cuba: Basta El Gulag Guevara
    Viva Una Teologia de LIBERTAD
    Abajo El Fascismo de la Izquierda
    El Fascismo, El Comunismo — Son Lo Mismo !!
    Socialismo O Muerte !! (Viva La Muerte ??)
    En CUBAragua: Abajo Las “Stalinistas”
    No al “ComuniCzar” Chavez

    While such slogans and labels do not constitute a magic wand for destroying the enemy outright, each of them is a simple way to tell the truth about who these enemies of the people really are — rather than the “voice of the people” and the “populists” and the purveyors of “social justice” they so deceitfully pretend to be.

    Jim Guirard — TrueSpeak.org Justcauses@aol.com

    Like

  2. BOB says:

    Talking about Toyota as a brand example, nothing is eternal.As much as this vehicle is massively recalled due to fatal mechanical flaws, the Bolvarian brand deserves even more a total and permanent retirement from the shelves.

    Like

  3. BOB says:

    The Cubans have every reason to be spooked as an informal hunting season on military advisors is open.

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  4. Kepler says:

    Thanks for your blogging, Gringo.

    There is another development worth mentioning. I wrote about it on Quico’s blog: the use of “information packages” to raster/identify patterns or send messages to group of people, say, tweets back with specific messages: don’t go to march X, we know where you are”.
    This is increasingly done in Iran and many other totalitarian countries. The technology AND packages are provided by the normal information technology companies as Nokia-Siemens. cubans definitely don’t produce this stuff and they have much less use for that at home but I am sure they are buyers of such “packages” and their leaders are very keen for Venezuela’s security forces to use those possibilities to spy and threaten.

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  5. Hugo Groening says:

    Well now! “A través de Venezuela”, a venezuelan news web site, posted a spanish translation of the article originally titled “The Cubans are Spooked” by Caracas Gringo. Everything ok, except that they decided to give it a different title: “Cuando el árbol cae, los monos se dispersan”, taken -I suppose- from the motto by CG in the english version: “When the tree falls, the monkeys scatter”.

    I think it’s phenomenal that ATV or some diligent contributor is taking the trouble to translate & post articles by CG. It makes them accessible to a lot of people. The only observation I’d make to the translator is to be mindful of the true title of each article. Otherwise, it might just be passed over by readers.

    The link to the article in ATV is:

    http://www.atravesdevenezuela.com/ATV/node/88

    Like

  6. Knight says:

    CG estimates the number of cubans in Venezuela at 60-70,000 … with 9 out of 10 unwilling to point their weapons at us, still leaves 6-7,000 that will …. coupled with the numbers of soldiers and officers that will betray the country and fight for the robolucion, in addition to the hardcore Tupamaros, Carapaicas, FBL and other two-legged vermin, leaves a sizable contingent of dangerous men ready, willing and able to commit murder.

    Me thinks it sounds like a recipe for civil war and bloodshed at any time. Me thinks the fuse for the Venezuelan time bomb has been lit, but no one knows how long that fuse really is ….

    I wonder if CG ever got a hold of the Master “Business” Plan called “Espada de las Americas”, drafted several years ago by Fidel and to be implemented with Venezuelan money and the help of various useful clowns who are now in power in several countries in SA, including Evo Morales and the Kirschners. I’ll be happy to oblige and share….the US did get a copy of it but seems to have taken a “let’s wait and see” posture, no doubt influenced by the need to maintain steady oil imports and prices …

    Like

    • CLopez says:

      Not too many people know this, but actually a “Venezuelan Civil War”-according to history- means a huge bloodfest, the most fatal internal conflict in history in relation to the size of the country. The Federal War directly killed no less than 7% of the total population before the war, some put this estimates at 10%. No less than 10% of the population was wounded. 40 years later, The Libertadora Revolution, Gomez’s reign and later Perez Jiménez, weren’t precisely simbolic in their capacity to kill and mercilessly, not to mention the communist coups and guerrillas in the 60s and off course, Feb. 27th 1989, which is the closest we’ve been to repeating Zamora’s greatest achievement. As a conclusion, it seems the “bochinche” attitute pretty much tends to finish as a drunkards bloody battle…with the place’s doors locked… from the outside.

      Like

  7. Juancho says:

    “. . . when Alarcon returned to Havana he told the Castro brothers and their top military/security cadres that President Chavez has lost control of the situation and Venezuela has become ungovernable.”

    I wonder how much of the ungovernable quotient Alcaron attributd to the rapidly crumbling civic infrastructure, which many experts tel me is basically irreparable. Perhaps the political curtain will drop concurrent with the lights and water going off line for the duration.

    We will soon find out, me thinks . . .

    Juancho

    Like

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