Honduras-Nicaragua conflict unlikely

President Roberto Micheleti of Honduras warned on 5 July that Nicaragua is deploying troops to its border with Honduras. President Daniel Ortega promptly denied the charge.

But President Hugo Chavez’s week-old threat of Venezuelan military intervention in Honduras still hangs in the background.

A friend calls and asks, “Could Chavez deploy his Sukhois to Honduras?”

Since Mel Zelaya was sent packing a week ago for repeatedly defying the Constitution, Supreme Court and Congress of Honduras, the world’s Spanish-language news media has buzzed with expert political commentary about the political crisis in Honduras.

But we haven’t seen any military experts talking about the risks of an armed confrontation between the armed forces of Honduras and other Latin American countries.

What are the risks of an armed confrontation between Honduras and other countries? Can Chavez make good on his threats of military intervention in Honduras to restore Zelaya to power?

Geographically, the governments of Nicaragua and El Salvador could deploy troops into Honduras.

But as much as Chavez may be working behind the scenes to persuade Ortega and El Salvador’s President Mauricio Funes to intervene, it won’t happen.

Ortega is Chavez’s paid lackey, but Nicaragua’s Sandinista military commanders will not obey Ortega’s orders to cross the border into Honduras.

El Salvador’s Funes is FMLN, but so far he hasn’t joined the braying pack of chavista extremists which include Ortega, Evo Morales of Bolivia and Rafael Correa of Ecuador.

And Funes knows that El Salvador’s US-trained military commanders definitely will reject even the slightest hint by Funes that they should “support” Zelaya’s return to power in Tegucigalpa.

But what of Micheletti’s warning of Nicaraguan troops “massing” at the border?

It’s likely that Nicaragua’s military is reinforcing its border with Honduras, as the military in Honduras already have done.

But Nicaragua’s armed forces have less than 20,000 active personnel, about the same as the armed forces of Honduras.

On paper, Nicaragua has more armored fighting vehicles than Honduras, including 31 operational Soviet-made T-55 battle tanks. The air force of Honduras has more combat aircraft – including 11 F-5’s and half a squadron of Brazilian Tucano trainers – than Nicaragua.

However, 20-plus years of post-Cold War budget cutbacks have hollowed out Nicaragua’s armed forces – and the armed forces of Honduras – to the point where their main activities include border security, drug interdiction and other internal security activities in support of civilian law enforcement – like battling the powerful Maras or gangs which infest Central America.

Military commanders in both countries likely will do everything in their power to avoid cross-border clashes.

The militaries of Honduras and Nicaragua are roughly even on paper in terms of reported active-duty personnel, but both have major staffing, equipment and armament deficiencies.

From a military perspective, whether in Managua or Tegucigalpa, the crisis is political and internal to Honduras.

The national security and territorial integrity of the other Central American countries are not threatened by the political crisis in Honduras, so there is no need whatsoever for the armed forces of these countries to mobilize units against Honduras.

Nicaragua’s military commanders know this, irrespective of their allegedly Sandinista ideology.

If Chavez decides in one of his mad moments to order his Sukhois or other Venezuelan military assets to Honduras, it would constitute an overt act of war by Venezuela against Honduras and would confirm what everyone already knows: that Chavez is directly involved in the political crisis playing out in Tegucigalpa.

But Chavez doesn’t have the air refueling capability to fly his Sukhois to Honduras and back. The Sukhois would be forced to refuel, say, at air bases in Nicaragua or El Salvador.

For all his bluster, Ortega doesn’t want to get sucked into a regional conflict created by Chavez. And Funes certainly won’t dance to Chavez’s tune. Funes is a socialist, but he isn’t stupid.

He won’t give El Salvador’s conservative forces, which include the armed forces, an excuse to impeach and remove him from the presidency for illegally and unconstitutionally starting a war with a neighboring country by sending Salvadoran troops into that country.

However, Chavez and his pal Ortega do have the capability to deploy paid political agitators on the ground in Honduras.

The Chavez regime has been in Honduras since before Zelaya was elected president at the end of 2005, funding and organizing Bolivarian groups in that country, including activists trained in the instigation of violent street protests.

President Micheletti claims that his new government’s security forces already have arrested numerous Nicaraguan nationals in poor sections of Tegucigalpa and other cities in the act of trying to instigate violent street protests.

Dozens of civilians who tried to enter Honduras from Nicaragua overland during the past week also have been turned back at the border by Honduran troops at reinforced border crossings.

Several thousand Zelaya supporters have massed at the international airport in Tegucigalpa. Clashes are already erupting. The potential of increased violence today and in coming days is significant and growing.

But the chances of military clashes between Honduras and its neighbors would appear to be practically nil – por ahora, anyway.

About Caracas Gringo

Representing less than 0.00000000001515152% of the world population as of 31 December 2011.
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2 Responses to Honduras-Nicaragua conflict unlikely

  1. lurking says:

    glad to have you back… we’re still reading

    Like

  2. Juan Largo says:

    I was in Venezuela when the Zelaya fiasco broke and tried to follow it somewhat later in Panama City. Ever since, Hondurasnews.com hasn’t had much to add. Now, a month later, the situation remains unresolved – the functional curse of most all Latin America (lack of conflict resolution).

    Of course there will be no military action or intervention in Honduras – not by Venezuela, Nicaragua or anyone else, especially the US.

    While there are cogent points mentioned by Caracas Gringo, there are other factors that are perhaps more fundamental that basically rule out miliatry action from anyone per Honduras.

    Remember, Honduras is a poor nation, currently well nigh broke. If some country was foolish enough to invade the place, they would have to finance such an operation on their own centavo, since there are so few liquid assets to milk in Honduras, rum notwithstanding. Just as thiefs don’t attempt to rob an empty store, governments rarely if ever invade countries (only the US and Russia does so now, usually for “political” reasons) with no assets. Why would they?

    Chavez wants Zelaya reinstalled to have another wannabe Castro in power in a neighboriing nation – a political reason, for sure – but Chavez is cash-strapped just now and is not willing to spend the billions of Bs it would take to actually invade, fight, and force his way on Honduras.

    What’s much more fundamental than even the dinero factor is that South American nations do not fight actual wars or sustained military conflicts. Latino military forces are strictly domestic police or at worse, political terrorist outfits. They can – or used to – fight each other in tragic and protracted conflicts re: Nicaragua, El Salvador, and what’s still going on in Colombia; but the last time a Latin military got into a true multinational fight (Argentina with England over the Falklands), Argentina basically folded in a day becaue they only have the uniforms, parades, and a few weapons. They do not have a genuine army or navy. None of these contries do.

    I mean, try and imagine the Venezuelan army actually invading Honduras? What would happend when el chamos started getting shot? And when the arepas ran out?
    And what’s this about having to fight on weekends, sin cerveza, when Los Tiberones are playing? And why are we here? Zelaya who?

    Conjo!

    No Latin military has the wherewithal, leadership, resources or resolve to do prosecute anything but guerilla style strikes (Colombia in Ecuador) or carry out simple border defence (for which US military “advisors” trained the Honduran forces). You have to have remarkable organizational prowess to effectively fight an actual war these days, and true staying power as well – and a whole lost of disposible cash to fund the whole bonche. I’d seriously question any intelligence saying even one SA government has the capacity to conduct such a war for any length of time – this based not so much on military intelligence as on the Latino temperment.

    Honduras is a study because, lacking resources (like Palestine), no one cares enough to risk life and greenbacks to force a solution, leaving Honduras to sort out their own problems, with a little help and nudging from surrounding countries. It might get ugly if embargos are strictly imposed. Once the fule runs out, foreign aid dries up, the cash flow bogs or stops altogether and the Generals are no longer getting their “saleries,” the whole “democratic” structure we keep hearing about in Honduras could unravel in an hour, and Zelaya could be marched back into the presidential palace at gunpoint.

    You’ve to to admit it’s all great theater . . .

    Juan L.

    Like

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