The “head-fake” decline in oil prices have decimated the budgets and geopolitical dreams of Venezuela, Iran and Russia. Who might gain if oil prices decline even further? Read the analysis at Of Two Minds.
Excerpt: “…let’s consider who has the capacity to flood an already glutted market and survive the final collapse of price. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Gulf Oil states and Iraq come to mind: the first three due to their low production costs and reserves of cash, and Iraq because it can always count on the U.S. to provide whatever funds are needed to get through a rough patch of low oil prices. And now let’s tote up who will very likely not survive a further downleg in oil prices: Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and perhaps Nigeria and the West African oil exporters. By most published accounts, Iran and Venezuela require oil prices to stabilize around $80/barrel to fund their various welfare states and geopolitical ambitions (nuclear and otherwise). If oil falls to $20/barrel or lower and stays there, then their welfare states and costly geopolitical plans both implode.”