Caracas Gringo

'When the tree falls, the monkeys scatter'

Firestorms

with 8 comments

“…lo que viene es candela,” Vice President Elias Jaua warned recently.

“…war to the death,” Marciano wrote in the pro-regime Vea. “…blood could be spilled,” adds Marciano, aka Jose Vicente Rangel.

Rangel – a former vice president, defense minister and foreign minister – was just appointed to the newly activated Council of State, an advisory entity contemplated in the Bolivarian Constitution of 1999.

Chavez ordered the six-member Council of State to come up with a plan to withdraw Venezuela from the Inter-American Human Rights Commission (CIDH), an arm of the OAS in Washington, DC.

The council’s creation is a mere bureaucratic formality, of course; it’s a given that the Bolivarian Revolution must quit the CIDH as it prepares to defy voters and the world – and perpetuate itself in power by any and all means including fraud, repression and violence.

Rangel has been a Castro asset in Venezuela since the late 1950s.

Vice-President Elias Jaua is the Council of State’s president, as established in the constitution.

Jaua, who also enjoys Havana’s support, also commands the Francisco Miranda Patriotic Front, a nominally political entity that reportedly also has the capacity to deploy upwards of 3,000 armed, trained fighters. But Jaua’s gunmen are just a fraction of the thousands of hardcore Venezuelans committed to the radical vision of the Bolivarian revolution.

Edmund Saade of Datos noted in a recent Business Venezuela article that there are two different Venezuela’s living inside the same geographical territory, and there’s no reconciling the two different countries.

Saade’s assessment is sharply at odds with the campaign message of Henrique Capriles Radonsky, who is preaching inclusion, conciliation, negotiation, tolerance, and consensus.

Capriles is pitching voters a win-win message; everyone wins, the rising tide of recovery, growth and prosperity raises all boats, a thousand points of light on a shining hill, change we can believe in rhetoric.

But Saade’s view suggests that the only options in Venezuela are win-lose, or lose-lose. Winner takes all, or everybody loses.

Chavez is still the president, nominally. But Chavez is no longer in control of fast-moving developments.

Chavez is in Cuba more or less permanently now, under the 24/7 care of the best Cuban medical doctors under the direct supervision and command of Fidel Castro.

Chavez may be ruling by Twitter and speed dial, but Fidel is calling the shots now in Bolivarian Venezuela.

Votes and peaceful resistance are the only weapons in the political opposition’s arsenal.

But the Bolivarian regime, now firmly in Fidel’s hands, will do what it has to stay in power – with or without Chavez.

In fact, the regime’s senior henchmen are more determined than ever to stay in power as a result of former narco-judge Eladio Aponte’s tales of the direct involvement of General Henry Rangel Silva and Cliver Alcala, Diosdado Cabello, Elias Jaua and other senior regime officials in drug trafficking and judicial tampering.

“Le van a dar una patada a la mesa,” my Army compadre forecasts.

They – the regime plus Fidel – are going to kick the table over and start a civil war, if that’s what it takes to stay in power.

There will not be any peaceful, democratic transfer of power. The Bolivarian regime’s thugs will not hand over the government to Capriles “under any circumstances,” the colonel says.

Fidel and Raul Castro won’t allow Capriles to assume power democratically either, he adds.

The Castro boys know that immediately that Capriles assumes the presidency in 2013 their Venezuelan sugar daddy is gone.

No more crude oil and other freebies for Havana totaling $5 billion to $7 billion annually.

The Cuban revolution is toast without its Bolivarian lifeline.

There are between 40,000 and 50,000 Cuban nationals deployed on missions in Venezuela, infiltrated into the armed forces, the Bolivarian militia units, and every key institution of governance in the country.

Anything can happen in Venezuela. No one is prepared for whatever could happen. But the Cubans under Fidel’s command fully intend to be dominant players in the end-game.

Here’s one scenario:

The Chavez regime withdraws Venezuela from the CIDH without bothering with any statutory formalities, even if that implies it gets cut off from the OAS. The presidential elections are held this year, if not on 7 October then in December, with or without Chavez, and Chavez or whoever the regime’s replacement candidate might be wins even if exit polls show Capriles with 80% of the vote. The MUD protests, the “international community” protests, there might even be street protests, but the regime stays in power. There will be an increase in street violence before the elections, particularly over the 90s days from thestart of July to the end of September, followed by a substantial spike in violence after the elections (if they’re not postpone to December). The Bolivarian armed forces won’t save the day for the good guys. After 14 years of Chavez the military is utterly destroyed as a professional institution that respects the constitution and rule of law in a civilian representative democracy. Venezuela will become more ungovernable, more unlivable, more uncivilized. Those who are not with ‘the process’ will have the option of surrendering, or else joining the Venezuelan diaspora. There isn’t room in one national territory for two irreconcilable visions of Venezuelan, as Saade noted. Venezuela is mired for years in economic stagnation and political violence.

Written by Caracas Gringo

04/05/2012 at 17:26

Posted in Uncategorized

8 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. All very true. Venezuela will be lucky to get through this intact. Chavez is likely not coming back, unless on a stretcher or in a box. The “Consejo”, I believe, is to keep the internal cannibalization down, for now. The military will be the key. Hopefully there will be one/some lower-level officials who are patriots and will save the day (in olden days this type of movement always came from below–and many decades before Chavez). The alternative is that Caracas burns…

    Like

    NET

    04/05/2012 at 17:52

  2. Grim scenario CG. I hope you’re wrong, but am afraid you’re right.

    Like

    Bryan

    04/05/2012 at 18:18

  3. This is just a scenario and there are plenty of possible outcomes. How long would Colombia and Brazil accept pandemonium next door?

    Another scenario: Chavista have already started killing each others. How about this continuing. This is more than a scenario; it is already happening. Fidel firmly in control? He might even croak before His Nibs.

    Like

    Charly

    04/05/2012 at 21:15

  4. This is something that I fear because I think it is the most likely scenario. Your take closely resembles that of Andres Reynaldo. Here it is: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2012/02/12/v-print/1124627/andres-reynaldo-el-umbral-de-la.html
    The forces involved in the implosion of the country are already set in motion.

    Like

    Johnny Walking

    04/05/2012 at 21:25

  5. As a Cuban-American and a Margariteño at heart I pray, that one day soon we can see Capriles as president of Venezuela and Yoani Sanchez as President of Cuba.
    Why not?
    Let freedom ring

    Like

    Alfred

    04/05/2012 at 22:33

  6. If your scenario comes true it will constitute a big change in the situation for all Venezuelans. But the resulting situation wouldn’t last too long as it would be very unstable.

    With Chavez gone, abundant violence and a new figure(s) in the throne but stained with a tainted origin and an apparent Cuban regent, the chavista love affair will vanish quickly and reality would sink in very fast for every one. Suddenly people’ll start to feel all the negatives and none of the positives that only Chavez could bring them.

    The chavista movement as one will implode and it’s not going to be pretty. Authority questioned, orders disobeyed, accusations, infighting, persecution, people fleeing and violence. Violence of course will be the worst part. The possibility of violence and chaos, actually the promise of avoiding violence, should be the best weapons that opposition should use to broker a ‘peaceful’ transition. Negotiations should start now with all the factions involved.

    Like

    amieres

    05/05/2012 at 01:03

  7. Hello Gringo:

    Back in March you wrote: “But the Army’s commanders – and I speak here of the Colonels and lower officer ranks – know that they cannot allow armed irregular groups of civilians to roam the cities freely. The military would be forced to intervene, and things could get very nasty before order is restored.”

    So it seems something has changed? Or did you get the above impression from one person and the “patada a la mesa and no saving the day” from a different source? Or has your appreciation changed on the 6 weeks since you wrote that reply?

    I realize no one has a crystal ball, yet you tend to get it right more often than many, so any light you can shed is always appreciated, even when the news sucks big time.

    Caracas Gringo reply: Same military sources. Their view has changed in the past six weeks, darkening consideraby. Depressed me too. I hope they – and I – are wrong.

    Like

    Roberto N

    05/05/2012 at 05:11

  8. Hello
    I think the scenarios are:
    1- Chávez is (self)appointed candidate, and he wins the election. If he dies after, the Constitution says VP would replace him, and new scenarios would emerge.
    2- Chávez is (self)appointed candidate, and he loose the election. If he dies after this, no problem…
    3- Chávez is (self)appointed candidate, and he dies before the election day. There is no legal action to allow the PSUV to replace its candidate, nor any legal way to postpone the election. Of course, the “régimen” can profanate anything and declare some kind of “emergency” to postpone whatever it wants and –again- we would have a new scenario.
    4- Chávez goes –dead or alive- without being candidate. Another “chavista” is appointed and there will be the “normal” 3 months campaign. The opposition might think that this scenario is the best to win. Not necessarily, because if the candidate is really accepted by the chavistas voters then a narrow election will follow plus the prepared fraud they are cooking since last election –multiple real voters, multiple fictious voters and black box software to add small quantities in many voting centers, among other tricks.
    Neither of current conspicuous precandidates –Cabello, Jaua and Maduro- have the “force” to be accepted. Who might have money or army support does not have Fidel support, and who might have Fidel support does not have army nor “civilian” chavistas support.
    If this is true, the obvious candidate will be José Vicente Rangel, because he is some kind of middle point for all these actors and factors. He is very well known by civilian as their candidate in 1973 and 1983. He knows deeply the armed forces plus a lot of “secrets” regarding the generals. He has deep roots in the mass media and corporations and international experience. Besides, he is devilish and cynical enough to deal with Fidel. And above all Chávez love him, after Fidel.
    I would bet on him. Sorry for long post. Cheers.
    (http://vivalapolitica.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/el-escorpion-tapado/)

    Like

    Hermann_Alvino

    06/05/2012 at 14:40


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 279 other followers

%d bloggers like this: